学术论文

      战时弹药消耗预测方法研究

      Research on Prediction Methods of Wartime Ammunition Consumption

      摘要:
      针对目前弹药消耗预测方法普遍存在对历史弹药消耗数据依赖大和预测精度较低等问题,根据预测方法的不同属性,将弹药消耗预测方法划分为基于数理模型、基于作战模拟、基于智能算法和基于组合预测等4大类;对各种弹药消耗预测方法现状对比分析了优缺点;提出了未来应加强组合预测法和以航母编队作战为主的新型作战形式下的弹药消耗预测方面的研究.研究结果在一定程度上指明了战时弹药消耗预测方法的重点发展方向.
      Abstract:
      There are some problems in ammunition consumption forecasting methods that are the dependence of historical ammunition consumption data and lower prediction accuracy.According to the different attributes of the prediction methods,the prediction methods of ammunition consumption based on wartime aircraft carrier formation is divided into four categories,namely,mathematical model,combat simulation,intelligent algorithm and combination forecast.The advantages and disadvantages of each method are compared and analyzed.Finally,it puts forward that combination forecasting method and ammunition consumption based on wartime aircraft carrier formation should be strengthened in the future.The research results show the development trend of ammunition consumption forecasting methods to some extent.
      Author: ZOU Qiang WANG Chengchao JIA Runa WANG Dong
      作者单位: 海军航空工程学院,山东 烟台,264001
      刊 名: 兵器装备工程学报 ISTIC
      年,卷(期): 2017, 38(9)
      分类号: E927
      在线出版日期: 2018年1月3日