学术论文

      延迟退休、生育政策调整与中国经济增长

      Postponed Retirement, New Birth Policy of Second Child Adjustment and China Economy Increase

      摘要:
      政府在放松生育政策的同时,配合退休政策的调整具有重要的现实意义。通过构建延迟退休和生育调整的理论模型发现:从劳动力增量看,延迟退休能够产生即期效应,而生育调整具有滞后效应,且两者导致的劳动力增量差距呈现先扩大后缩小的特点,节点在2031年;从社会总负担看,在实行延迟退休后,总抚养比迅速下降到一个低水平位置;从总产出看,同时实施延迟退休和放松生育政策,经济中潜在的福利损失最小;从产出增速看,放开生育的同时配合延迟退休,经济增速下降最慢;从人均产出看,放开生育的同时最好配合延迟退休,否则人均收入提升的效果不如政策不变时效果。
      Abstract:
      While relaxing the birth policy, it is of great significance to coordinate with the policy of delayed retirement. By constructing a theoretical model of postponed retirement and birth policy adjustment, we find that, from the view of labor force increase, postponed retirement will produce an immediate effect while the new birth policy adjustment is expected to have a lagging effect, and the difference resulted from the comparison tends to expand first and then contract, the node of which will be in the year 2031. From the view of social burden, after the application of postponed retirement, the general maintenance rate will decrease to a lower level and the rate of increase will be slower;from the view of the general output, the potential loss in the economy will be the least in applying the two policies simultaneously;from the view of output increase rate, the combi-nation of relaxing birth policy and delayed retirement will make the economic increase rate decrease the slowest;from the view of output per capita, the two policies, if applied properly, will make the income per capita increase considerably.
      作者: 周立群 [1] 周晓波 [2]
      Author: ZHOU Liqun [1] ZHOU Xiaobo [2]
      作者单位: 南开大学 滨海开发研究院 南开大学 经济学院,天津,300071
      刊 名: 审计与经济研究 PKUCSSCI
      年,卷(期): 2016, 31(6)
      分类号: F241.34
      机标分类号: C91 Q
      在线出版日期: 2016年11月21日
      基金项目: 国家社会科学基金一般项目