新时期中国粮食供需平衡态势及粮食安全观的重构

Food security ensures anybody can get enough food for survival and health at any time.During 2015-2050,the potential of domestic agricultural resources is close to the limit,and the overall plan of China's food security need change.Food security means nutrition security at the individual level and the food availability,including food production and food imports,at the national level.The paper analyzed the balance between grain supply and demand during 2015-2050 in context of personal nutrition security and national food availability in China.The results of analysis showed that,in case of maintaining the existing grain production capacity,the total grain security degree is 110.88％-117.49％,the food grain security degree reaches 158.57％-168.02％,and the feed grain security degree is 79.41％-84.15％.This situation provides a tolerance space to achieve dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand of grain in grain market,also an opportunity for national food policy adjustment.In order to establish food security system in the new period to ensure the general balance of supply and demand of grain in China,the paper suggests:l) to make regulations of basic farmland to maintain sustainable grain production capacity at the resources side;2) to gradually develop larger professional grain production entities at the production side;3) to make full use of modem network technology and electronic business model to develop modem national and regional as well as international market system of grain;and 4) to adjust the structure and size of grain reserves.